The order people get kicked off in 'Survivor'

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SPOILERS AHEAD

Instead of spoilers, you can also read Understanding the Real Truth about Survivor.

In fact that's what you should read, since the web site data turned out to be a hoax by the producers to throw people off the track.

Recently a sleuth in the bulletin board at realworldblows discovered a bug on the Surivior Web page.

On this page, they show the order people get kicked off the island in Survivor. At least so far. There's an image of each person, keyed under their name, with an "X" on it to mark them kicked off.

A clever reader with the pseudo of "Caplock" tried fetching the pictures for the people who had not been kicked off. They were there, ready to be linked in as the shows air. And they all had an "X" on them, except one.

Skip reading now if you don't want to find out who the winner is.

The winner is Gervase, the YMCA Basketball coach.

Finding the Order

I decided to do more. I loaded all the pictures and asked what time the files had been created on the server. Any web server will tell you this -- it's how the "cache" functions know, when you return to a page, if they have to re-fetch it or can use the old copy. They ask for the time and if the image isn't any newer they don't fetch it.

So I got the times on all the players. They almost line up with the order they are kicked off the Island. They differ by only seconds -- they were all put up just after midnight, GMT, on July 1.

Here are the times for the people kicked off as of Jul 12 airdate. Times are minutes and seconds after GMT midnight.

Here are the times for the people not yet kicked off. This may be the order they are going to get kicked off.

Now note that Sonja and BB are slightly out of order. But these images are from July 1, after they were shown kicked off. Ditto Joel.

And clearly Coleen is out of order, plus Gretchen I don't know about her, but I'll predict from this table that She or Kelly are next. So this may mean the data is of little value, but it's too close to a real order to be void of meaning.

July 19th note: Well, it was a good theory. Greg's departure, and the seeming revalation that the final 4 are Gervase, Rudy, Sean and Colleen (with Jenna possibly fifth) starts making this data look less and less accurate.

Alliance

It seems that the Richard-Kelly-Rudy-Susan conspiracy, which in theory should have been almost sure to win, is somehow broken. Perhaps because the other 5 gang up and remove Kelly in the next episode? Then Susan?

Or perhaps a new alliance forms. Gervase is smarter than he lets on.

Or perhaps there is dissent within the alliance. If they made witnessed binding contracts and those contracts aren't prohibited by their contract with CBS, lawsuits would entail.

But I do know this -- Richard can't win. As the "leader" of the alliance, the losers will, if forced, give the million to the "least evil" member of the conspiracy, and it won't be him. He's forgetting, as he reveals plans to the public cameras, that the losers will see this, and will know.

Of course it is $100,000 for coming second.

However, as you note, my statistics above show the conspiracy falling apart early, losing its two women in the next few weeks. I see a few ways for this to happen.

First of all the other islanders will find out about the alliance. If not on their own, hints from the producers -- you saw how they grilled Richard on his Alliance at the council -- will make them know. This will cause a rebellion, temporarily uniting the others to the purpose of destroying the Alliance. Who they kick off depends on what they know of the Alliance and who wins immunity. Once two of the Alliance are gone, they are defeated, a voting block of 2 being no stronger than other pairings. More to the point, you want to have former Alliance members in the game against you because you know they can't win in the final vote! They are sure to be voted against by their returning victims. So your ideal situation is to have yourself and former alliance members.

What Not to Forget about Survivor

To really understand the show read my essay on The Important Thing to Really Understand about Survivor.

While I have you here....

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